The Role of Strategic Foresight in Leadership Evolution: Developing a Future-Oriented Management Model
Keywords:
Strategic foresight, leadership evolution, future-oriented management, qualitative research, scenario planning, adaptive leadership, Tehran organizationsAbstract
This study aimed to explore how strategic foresight contributes to leadership evolution and to develop a future-oriented management model for organizations operating under environmental uncertainty. This qualitative study was conducted using an exploratory thematic analysis design. Participants consisted of 22 senior managers, middle managers, strategic planning specialists, organizational development consultants, and innovation leaders working in Tehran-based organizations. Participants were selected through purposive sampling, followed by snowball sampling, based on their direct experience with strategic planning, foresight practices, organizational transformation, and leadership decision-making. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews lasting 45 to 75 minutes. Theoretical saturation was reached after the twentieth interview, and two additional interviews were conducted to confirm category stability. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using NVivo software. Data analysis followed an inductive coding procedure including open coding, category development, theme refinement, constant comparison, and peer review. The analysis produced five main categories explaining the role of strategic foresight in leadership evolution: environmental scanning as a leadership attentional capability, scenario-based sensemaking, future-oriented decision architecture, distributed foresight and participatory leadership, and institutionalized learning for adaptive renewal. Participants described foresight as a shift from reactive managerial control toward anticipatory, learning-based, and ecosystem-sensitive leadership. The proposed model suggests that leadership evolution occurs when leaders move from short-term operational problem solving to systematic future sensing, collective interpretation, strategic option creation, experimental implementation, and institutional learning. Strategic foresight appears to function not only as a planning tool but also as a developmental mechanism through which leadership identities, routines, and decision logics evolve. Future-oriented management requires leaders to cultivate weak-signal sensitivity, scenario literacy, strategic imagination, participatory interpretation, and adaptive learning systems.
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