Strategic Leadership Evolution Under Uncertainty: Developing a Complexity-Based Leadership Framework

Abstract

This study aimed to develop a complexity-based framework explaining how strategic leadership evolves under conditions of uncertainty in contemporary organizations. This qualitative study used an interpretive research design based on semi-structured interviews with 24 senior managers, strategy directors, organizational development consultants, innovation managers, and executive-level decision-makers working in Tehran-based organizations. Participants were selected through purposive sampling according to their direct involvement in strategic decision-making under unstable market, technological, regulatory, and organizational conditions. Data collection continued until theoretical saturation was reached at the twenty-second interview, followed by two additional interviews to confirm the stability of the categories. Interviews lasted between 45 and 80 minutes and were transcribed verbatim. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis supported by NVivo software. Coding proceeded through open coding, axial comparison, theme refinement, and framework development. Credibility was enhanced through member checking, peer review, prolonged engagement with the data, and maintaining an audit trail. Five main categories emerged from the analysis: anticipatory sensemaking, distributed adaptive decision-making, enabling constraints, strategic experimentation, and relational resilience. The findings showed that strategic leadership under uncertainty evolves from command-and-control planning toward a complexity-based process in which leaders interpret weak signals, mobilize distributed intelligence, create flexible boundaries, support experimentation, and sustain trust across stakeholder networks. Participants emphasized that uncertainty cannot be eliminated through planning alone; rather, it must be navigated through iterative learning, rapid feedback, and adaptive coordination. The proposed framework conceptualizes strategic leadership evolution as a shift from predictive control to adaptive orchestration. Under uncertainty, effective strategic leaders act less as centralized decision-makers and more as system enablers who shape conditions for emergence, learning, and collective adaptation.